Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu cut the 2025 delivery forecast for electric vehicle maker Rivian in a research note on Tuesday, after the company announced production disruptions caused by a parts shortage.
The analyst expects the Irvine-based EV maker to deliver about 51,000 units this year and 56,000 in 2025. The new forecast for next year’s deliveries represents a reduction of 6,000 units from the 62,000 units previously estimated.
“All in, we update our model to reflect Q3 deliveries and lower production outlook. Importantly, we wonder if the 4Q24 positive gross margin is still achievable amid the supply chain issues faced by the company,” the analyst noted reflecting on Rivian’s goal of achieving positive gross margin this quarter.
Yu lowered the price target on Rivian shared by $1 to $13.00 while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.
The firm expects now Rivian’s revenue for the third quarter to come at $867 million, down nearly 9 percent from the previous forecast of $951 million.
“We now model 4Q gross margin below breakeven to account for the supply chain challenges. Our Q3 revenue estimate is now at $867m (down from $951m and vs. Street at $1,088m),” Deutsche Bank analyst wrote.
Rivian said last Friday it expects to produce between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles this year, down from the previous guidance of 57,000 units.
“For the full year, our deliveries estimate is at ~51k units, with revenue at $4.4bn and EBITDA at -$2.7bn. Looking ahead to 2025, we take down our deliveries estimate to 56k units, down from 62k, as it appears the supply issue will persist into Q4,” Yu added.
The analyst expects Rivian management to provide more information on the supply chain disruption.
Last week, when reporting its third quarter production and delivery results, the EV maker said the issue has been becoming more significant raising concerns among both analysts and investors on the potential impact.
“We will look to earnings on Nov 7th for more color on the expected resolution timeline. Factoring in lower out-year estimates, we trim our price target by $1 to $13, still based on 1.5x 2027E EV/Revenue,” the analyst wrote.
Last week, Rivian applied for a federal loan to help finance the resumption of construction on its $5 billion electric vehicle factory, located about 40 miles east of Atlanta, Georgia.
Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
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