Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao raised the price target on Nio as the Shanghai-based electric vehicle maker prepares for a new product cycle with nine model launches over the next nine months.
Less than two months after cutting its price target on Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$38.00 to HK$34.00, Macquarie lifted the target to HK$36.00 on Tuesday, while maintaining a Neutral rating.
The Hong Kong-listed shares of the EV maker closed 2.6% higher at HK$33.80, implying an upside potential of about 6.5% based on Macquarie’s revised estimate.
Macquarie had previously turned bullish on the Shanghai-based Group in October 2023, raising its target from HK$52 to HK$65 after shares surged to HK$60.70. However, the firm reversed course weeks later, cutting the target by 41% to HK$38 and downgrading the stock to Neutral from Outperform, citing slowing demand and subsidy uncertainty.
At the time, Macquarie flagged concerns that 50–60% of orders for Nio’s sub-brand Onvo were at risk of being affected by the expiration of local purchase subsidies at the end of 2024. Earlier this month, the brand’s chief Alan Ai said Onvo finished delivering its backlog after the Chinese New Year holidays.
Nio reported its fourth-quarter results last week, posting wider losses but improved year-over-year vehicle margins. Its delivery guidance for the first quarter of 2025 fell short of expectations, with March deliveries projected to remain below 16,000 units across both the Nio and Onvo brands.
Analyst reactions
Several Wall Street analysts have been adjusting their estimates on Nio following the earnings release.
Citi analyst Jeff Chung lowered the firm’s price target to $8.10 from $8.90, while maintaining a Buy rating. Despite the cut, the new target implies an 80% upside from the previous close.
Over the weekend, Mizuho Securities reduced its target on Nio by 16% to $4.20, while Bank of America trimmed its forecast to $4.90. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating with a $5.90 target, implying a 31% upside.
Upcoming models
The first two models in the company’s nine-vehicle rollout will be the ET9 luxury flagship sedan and the debut model under its Firefly entry-level brand — both in April.
At the Beijing Auto Show in April, Nio will unveil the L90, the second model under the Onvo brand, with facelifts for the ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6 and EC6 following. The refreshed models will be equipped with in-house developed chips that are expected to contribute to higher vehicle margins as the company aims to reach 20
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Nio plans to launch a new model under its main brand. While CEO William Li has not disclosed specifics, he said in a recent interview that the model is “extremely competitive” from a cost and technology perspective and will target a segment with high volume potential.
“From product definition to cost targets, it is extremely competitive, and will incorporate our latest technologies. We are very confident we can return to center stage and gain sufficient market share in our segment,” Li said.
Nio’s U.S.-listed shares closed slightly higher at $4.39 on Tuesday trading. Year to date, the stock is up 0.7%.