Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Over the past few weeks, several Wall Street analysts have lowered their estimates for Tesla’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, citing February data and early March registration figures.
Following adjustments from Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley and Mizuho, Barclays analyst Dan Levy published a new research note on Friday reaffirming that the firm estimates first-quarter deliveries to be “~350k units,” a 10% drop from the first quarter of 2024 and a 30% sequential decline.
“Based on reported Jan/Feb data and early March reads, we estimate 1Q deliveries of ~350k units, inline with our preliminary estimate last week, well below consensus of ~400k, and below our published estimate post 4Q EPS back in January,” Levy wrote.
The analyst reaffirmed an Equalweight rating on the stock and $325.00 price target that imply an upside potential of 37.7% based on Thursday’s closing price.
The firm expects “a ~20k unit inventory drawdown driven by lower China production for exports (less vehicles in transit) and lower global production” as Tesla continues to ramp up production of the refreshed Model Y. Levy sees Tesla’s global inventory at “~70-80k units.”
Morgan Stanley said on Thursday it now expects Tesla deliveries for the first quarter to be 351,000 vehicles, cutting previous forecast by 64,000 units.
Adam Jonas said in a new research note that the firm is reducing the target to $410 from $430 while reaffirming a Overweight rating. Tesla shares closed at $236 on Thursday suggesting that the price target — despite reduced — still represents an upside potential of 73.7%.
Tesla shares have dropped 41.50% year-to-date.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter also lowered the price target on the company earlier this Thursday to $450.00 from $500.00 while keeping an Overweight rating.
Earlier this week, also Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh cut the firm’s 2025 Tesla delivery forecast to 1.8 million vehicles from a previous estimate of 2.3 million, citing demand concerns and market headwinds.